Sui vs Solana vs lightning network as a payment network

What is the cost of sending 1 USD of a stable asset to my friend (ptop) on a network when 500M users are using it?

Solana
current Daily Active Users: ~250k (solscan or artemis)
current cost: 0.0000085 SOL * 20 USD/SOL = 0.00017 USD (solscan)
cost for 500M DAUs:

Sui
current DAU: ~ 100k (suivision or artemis)
current cost: 0.0025 SUI * 0.50 USD/SUI = 0.00124 USD (suiscan Avg gas fee)
cost for 500M DAUs:

Lightning network 1ml
current Daily Active Users: not available
current cost: 0.04 USD (Google Bard)
cost for 500M DAUs:

Note that the question asks “when 500M users”. It doesn’t really matter what a network can do when there are 100k active users.
Do we have simulated data to compare the networks for 500M DAUs?

Notes:
Sui:
At 500M DAUs, a ptop transfer of a coin (a single-writer object) will still be able to skip consensus. But what does this mean for the fee? Is the average gas fee of a transfer for a simple ptop transfer expected to stay more or less the same over time?

Solana:

Lightning:

Feel free to chime in, suggest better resources or correct me where I’m wrong. I’ll update the post where required.

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Just a note on this, for Solana those costs assume every address you’re sending USDC to already exists. If you need to create any then there’s a deposit required which is ~0.002 SOL (x $88 = $0.17) and yeah the price of SOL has gone up a lot since you posted this and will prob go up a lot more.

Side note: I’ve found this deposit cost very noticeable as the price moves, especially if you’re creating a lot of recipient addresses e.g. embedded wallets for all your customers. Also if your dapp requires more storage then this deposit is higher, e.g. to create an account on mango.markets requires 0.041 SOL (x $88 = $3.60 currently). This is an onboarding UX pain in the ass.

New to SUI so not fully over their equivalent here.